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Lake Macquarie vs Thornton Redbacks — NNSW League 1 2026

Lake Macquarie
Lake Macquarie
FT
2 – 3
HT: 2 – 2
Thornton Redbacks
Thornton Redbacks
M. Wolscher 7'
Unknown 2'
M. Diop 65'
N. Mcallister 30'
L. Kulupach 15'
6/28/2025NNSW League 1NNSW League 1 · Round 14Lake Macquarie Regional Football Facility Grass Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Lake Macquarie57%
×Draw18%
Thornton Redbacks25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lake Macquarie
2.67
Thornton Redbacks
1.75

Lake Macquarie creates 53% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 21 away

creates per match

Lake Macquarie
3.19
Thornton Redbacks
1.62

allows per match

Lake Macquarie
1.88
Thornton Redbacks
2.14

finishing

Lake Macquarie+0.00on par
Thornton Redbacks+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lake Macquarie ↓

Thornton Redbacks →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
64%36%4.5
44%56%

Double chance

Lake Macquarie or draw
75%
Lake Macquarie or Thornton Redbacks
82%
Draw or Thornton Redbacks
43%

Winning margin

Lake Macquarie wins by 2+
37%
Thornton Redbacks wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Lake Macquarie 1+ goals
93%
Lake Macquarie 2+ goals
74%
Lake Macquarie 3+ goals
49%
Thornton Redbacks 1+ goals
83%
Thornton Redbacks 2+ goals
52%
Thornton Redbacks 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Lake Macquarie (draw refunded)
70%
Thornton Redbacks (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
71%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lake Macquarie at home — creates 3.19, concedes 1.88 · 16 matches

Thornton Redbacks away — creates 1.62, concedes 2.14 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lake Macquarie attack 3.19 + Thornton Redbacks defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 2.67

Thornton Redbacks attack 1.62 + Lake Macquarie defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Lake Macquarie scores more
57%
level
18%
Thornton Redbacks scores more
25%

Lake Macquarie at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Lake Macquarie will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'
7'
M. Wolscher
15'
L. Kulupach
30'
N. Mcallister
65'
M. Diop

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NNSW League 1: Lake Macquarie 2–3 Thornton Redbacks

Thornton Redbacks beat Lake Macquarie 3-2 in NNSW League 1 on June 28, 2025.

Goals: ? (2'), M. Wolscher (7'), L. Kulupach (15'), N. Mcallister (30'), M. Diop (65').

The match was played at Lake Macquarie Regional Football Facility Grass Field in Newcastle.