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Thornton Redbacks vs Cessnock City Hornets — NNSW League 1 2026

Thornton Redbacks
Thornton Redbacks
FT
2 – 1
Cessnock City Hornets
Cessnock City Hornets
3/9/2024NNSW League 1NNSW League 1 · Round 3Metford Recreational Oval

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Thornton Redbacks37%
×Draw22%
Cessnock City Hornets42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Thornton Redbacks
1.82
Cessnock City Hornets
1.94

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 21 home / 28 away

creates per match

Thornton Redbacks
1.43
Cessnock City Hornets
1.39

allows per match

Thornton Redbacks
2.48
Cessnock City Hornets
2.21

finishing

Thornton Redbacks+0.00on par
Cessnock City Hornets+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Thornton Redbacks ↓

Cessnock City Hornets →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Thornton Redbacks or draw
58%
Thornton Redbacks or Cessnock City Hornets
78%
Draw or Cessnock City Hornets
63%

Winning margin

Thornton Redbacks wins by 2+
19%
Cessnock City Hornets wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Thornton Redbacks 1+ goals
84%
Thornton Redbacks 2+ goals
54%
Thornton Redbacks 3+ goals
27%
Cessnock City Hornets 1+ goals
86%
Cessnock City Hornets 2+ goals
58%
Cessnock City Hornets 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Thornton Redbacks (draw refunded)
47%
Cessnock City Hornets (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Thornton Redbacks at home — creates 1.43, concedes 2.48 · 21 matches

Cessnock City Hornets away — creates 1.39, concedes 2.21 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Thornton Redbacks attack 1.43 + Cessnock City Hornets defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.82

Cessnock City Hornets attack 1.39 + Thornton Redbacks defence 2.48 → ÷2 → 1.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Thornton Redbacks scores more
37%
level
22%
Cessnock City Hornets scores more
42%

Cessnock City Hornets at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Cessnock City Hornets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NNSW League 1: Thornton Redbacks 2–1 Cessnock City Hornets

Thornton Redbacks beat Cessnock City Hornets 2-1 in NNSW League 1 on March 9, 2024.

The match was played at Metford Recreational Oval in Maitland.