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Cessnock City Hornets vs Thornton Redbacks — NNSW League 1 2026

Cessnock City Hornets
Cessnock City Hornets
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Thornton Redbacks
Thornton Redbacks
8/5/2025NNSW League 1NNSW League 1 · Round 17Lake Macquarie Regional Football Facility Field 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Cessnock City Hornets41%
×Draw22%
Thornton Redbacks36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cessnock City Hornets
1.80
Thornton Redbacks
1.67

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 28 home / 21 away

creates per match

Cessnock City Hornets
1.46
Thornton Redbacks
1.62

allows per match

Cessnock City Hornets
1.71
Thornton Redbacks
2.14

finishing

Cessnock City Hornets+0.00on par
Thornton Redbacks+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cessnock City Hornets ↓

Thornton Redbacks →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Cessnock City Hornets or draw
64%
Cessnock City Hornets or Thornton Redbacks
78%
Draw or Thornton Redbacks
59%

Winning margin

Cessnock City Hornets wins by 2+
22%
Thornton Redbacks wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Cessnock City Hornets 1+ goals
83%
Cessnock City Hornets 2+ goals
54%
Cessnock City Hornets 3+ goals
27%
Thornton Redbacks 1+ goals
81%
Thornton Redbacks 2+ goals
50%
Thornton Redbacks 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Cessnock City Hornets (draw refunded)
53%
Thornton Redbacks (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cessnock City Hornets at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.71 · 28 matches

Thornton Redbacks away — creates 1.62, concedes 2.14 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cessnock City Hornets attack 1.46 + Thornton Redbacks defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.80

Thornton Redbacks attack 1.62 + Cessnock City Hornets defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Cessnock City Hornets scores more
41%
level
22%
Thornton Redbacks scores more
36%

Cessnock City Hornets at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Cessnock City Hornets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cessnock City Hornets vs Thornton Redbacks

Cessnock City Hornets beat Thornton Redbacks 2-0 in NNSW League 1 on August 5, 2025.

The match was played at Lake Macquarie Regional Football Facility Field 1 in Newcastle.