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Thor Akureyri vs Leiknir F. — 1. Deild 2018

Thor Akureyri
Thor Akureyri
FT
5 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Leiknir F.
Leiknir F.
8/19/20201. Deild1. Deild · Round 12Þórsvöllur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Thor Akureyri62%
×Draw22%
Leiknir F.17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Thor Akureyri
1.91
Leiknir F.
0.87

Thor Akureyri creates 120% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 10 away

creates per match

Thor Akureyri
1.71
Leiknir F.
0.50

allows per match

Thor Akureyri
1.24
Leiknir F.
2.10

finishing

Thor Akureyri+0.00on par
Leiknir F.+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Thor Akureyri ↓

Leiknir F. →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Thor Akureyri or draw
83%
Thor Akureyri or Leiknir F.
78%
Draw or Leiknir F.
38%

Winning margin

Thor Akureyri wins by 2+
37%
Leiknir F. wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Thor Akureyri 1+ goals
85%
Thor Akureyri 2+ goals
57%
Thor Akureyri 3+ goals
30%
Leiknir F. 1+ goals
58%
Leiknir F. 2+ goals
22%
Leiknir F. 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Thor Akureyri (draw refunded)
79%
Leiknir F. (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Thor Akureyri at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.24 · 87 matches

Leiknir F. away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.10 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Thor Akureyri attack 1.71 + Leiknir F. defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.91

Leiknir F. attack 0.50 + Thor Akureyri defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Thor Akureyri scores more
62%
level
22%
Leiknir F. scores more
17%

Thor Akureyri at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Thor Akureyri will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Thor Akureyri vs Leiknir F.

Thor Akureyri beat Leiknir F. 5-1 in 1. Deild on August 19, 2020.

The match was played at Þórsvöllur in Akureyri.