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Leiknir F. vs Thor Akureyri — 1. Deild 2018

Leiknir F.
Leiknir F.
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Thor Akureyri
Thor Akureyri
6/28/20201. Deild1. Deild · Round 2Fjarðabyggðarhöllin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Leiknir F.30%
×Draw21%
Thor Akureyri49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leiknir F.
1.70
Thor Akureyri
2.19

Thor Akureyri creates 29% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 87 away

creates per match

Leiknir F.
1.40
Thor Akureyri
1.59

allows per match

Leiknir F.
2.80
Thor Akureyri
2.00

finishing

Leiknir F.+0.00on par
Thor Akureyri+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leiknir F. ↓

Thor Akureyri →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Leiknir F. or draw
51%
Leiknir F. or Thor Akureyri
79%
Draw or Thor Akureyri
70%

Winning margin

Leiknir F. wins by 2+
15%
Thor Akureyri wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Leiknir F. 1+ goals
82%
Leiknir F. 2+ goals
51%
Leiknir F. 3+ goals
24%
Thor Akureyri 1+ goals
89%
Thor Akureyri 2+ goals
64%
Thor Akureyri 3+ goals
37%

Draw no bet

Leiknir F. (draw refunded)
38%
Thor Akureyri (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leiknir F. at home — creates 1.40, concedes 2.80 · 10 matches

Thor Akureyri away — creates 1.59, concedes 2.00 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leiknir F. attack 1.40 + Thor Akureyri defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.70

Thor Akureyri attack 1.59 + Leiknir F. defence 2.80 → ÷2 → 2.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Leiknir F. scores more
30%
level
21%
Thor Akureyri scores more
49%

Thor Akureyri at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Thor Akureyri will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Deild: Leiknir F. 2–3 Thor Akureyri

Thor Akureyri beat Leiknir F. 3-2 in 1. Deild on June 28, 2020.

The match was played at Fjarðabyggðarhöllin in Reyðarfjörður.