Thor Akureyri 3–0 Grindavik: Result & Stats

Thor Akureyri

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Grindavik

A. Magnússon 86', 45'

B. Brynjólfsson 58'

9/16/2023

1. Deild · Round 22VÍS völlurinn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Thor Akureyri54%

×Draw21%

Grindavik25%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Thor AkureyriExpected goals in this matchGrindavik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.09

1.38

Thor Akureyri

2.09

Grindavik

1.38

Thor Akureyri creates 51% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 30 away

1.81

creates per match

1.50

1.25

allows per match

2.37

creates per match

Thor Akureyri

1.81

Grindavik

1.50

allows per match

Thor Akureyri

1.25

Grindavik

2.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Thor Akureyri+0.00on par

Grindavik+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Thor Akureyri ↓

Grindavik →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Thor Akureyri or draw

75%

Thor Akureyri or Grindavik

79%

Draw or Grindavik

46%

Winning margin

Thor Akureyri wins by 2+

32%

Grindavik wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Thor Akureyri 1+ goals

88%

Thor Akureyri 2+ goals

62%

Thor Akureyri 3+ goals

34%

Grindavik 1+ goals

75%

Grindavik 2+ goals

40%

Grindavik 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Thor Akureyri (draw refunded)

68%

Grindavik (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Thor Akureyri at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.25 · 16 matches

Grindavik away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.37 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Thor Akureyri attack 1.81 + Grindavik defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 2.09

Grindavik attack 1.50 + Thor Akureyri defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Thor Akureyri scores more

54%

level

21%

Grindavik scores more

25%

Thor Akureyri at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Thor Akureyri will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

40'

45'

58'

60'

66'

I. Kristjánsson← A. Þorláksson

66'

L. Ólafsson← S. Thasaphong

66'

M. Vardić← B. Aðalsteinsson

73'

O. Hauksson

75'

F. Gíslason← K. Kristjánsson

75'

K. Marteinsson← H. Rúnarsson

78'

F. Gislason

83'

I. Hávarðarson← A. Birnuson

83'

S. Ásgeirsson← G. Lýðsson

86'

A. Magnússon

87'

N. Stojanovic← R. Ragnarsson

Thor

Grindavik

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽2

▼

Manager: Þ. Arnason

66'▲I. Kristjánsson←▼A. Þorláksson

75'▲F. Gíslason←▼K. Kristjánsson

75'▲K. Marteinsson←▼H. Rúnarsson

87'▲N. Stojanovic←▼R. Ragnarsson

Thor Akureyri substitutes

KristjánssonGíslasonMarteinssonStojanovicValtýssonJónssonGeirsson

Manager: B. Gunnarsson

66'▲L. Ólafsson←▼S. Thasaphong

66'▲M. Vardić←▼B. Aðalsteinsson

83'▲I. Hávarðarson←▼A. Birnuson

83'▲S. Ásgeirsson←▼G. Lýðsson

Grindavik substitutes

ÓlafssonVardićHávarðarsonÁsgeirssonHlynsson