Grindavik 3–4 Thor Akureyri: Result & Stats

Grindavik

FT

3 – 4

HT: 1 – 2

Thor Akureyri

Á. Finnbogason 90+8' (pen)

B. Hermannsson 47'

I. Sigurðsson 2'

S. Gunnarsson 75', 30'

O. Sigurjónsson 72'

V. Hauksson 28' (OG)

5/24/2025

1. Deild · Round 4Stakkavíkurvöllur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Grindavik28%

×Draw20%

Thor Akureyri52%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GrindavikExpected goals in this matchThor Akureyri

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

2.25

Grindavik

1.61

Thor Akureyri

2.25

Thor Akureyri creates 40% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 13 away

1.38

creates per match

2.38

2.12

allows per match

1.85

creates per match

Grindavik

1.38

Thor Akureyri

2.38

allows per match

Grindavik

2.12

Thor Akureyri

1.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Grindavik+0.00on par

Thor Akureyri+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grindavik ↓

Thor Akureyri →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–25%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–03%

1–18%

1–29%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

53%47%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Grindavik or draw

48%

Grindavik or Thor Akureyri

80%

Draw or Thor Akureyri

72%

Winning margin

Grindavik wins by 2+

13%

Thor Akureyri wins by 2+

31%

Team goals

Grindavik 1+ goals

80%

Grindavik 2+ goals

48%

Grindavik 3+ goals

22%

Thor Akureyri 1+ goals

89%

Thor Akureyri 2+ goals

65%

Thor Akureyri 3+ goals

39%

Draw no bet

Grindavik (draw refunded)

35%

Thor Akureyri (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grindavik at home — creates 1.38, concedes 2.12 · 26 matches

Thor Akureyri away — creates 2.38, concedes 1.85 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grindavik attack 1.38 + Thor Akureyri defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.61

Thor Akureyri attack 2.38 + Grindavik defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 2.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Grindavik scores more

28%

level

20%

Thor Akureyri scores more

52%

Thor Akureyri at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Thor Akureyri will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'

I. Sigurðsson

28'

V. HaukssonOwn goal

30'

S. Gunnarsson

47'

B. Hermannsson

49'

A. Magnusson

67'

R. Ragnarsson

68'

A. Sindrason← C. Bayiha

72'

O. Sigurjónsson

73'

H. Rúnarsson← A. Magnússon

75'

S. Gunnarsson

87'

V. Ottosson

87'

A. Júlíusson← I. Sigurðsson

87'

E. Rúnarsson← B. Hermannsson

88'

K. Kristjánsson← I. Baldé

88'

Ý. Geirsson← S. Gunnarsson

90+8'

Á. FinnbogasonPenalty

Grindavik

Thor

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

🥅

⚽

▼

Hermannss

Heimisson

⚽

▼

⚽

Manager: H. Hródmarsson

87'▲A. Júlíusson←▼I. Sigurðsson

87'▲E. Rúnarsson←▼B. Hermannsson

Grindavik substitutes

JúlíussonRúnarssonArnarssonGuðmundssonHlynssonSigtryggssonTómasson

Manager: S. Höskuldsson

68'▲A. Sindrason←▼C. Bayiha

73'▲H. Rúnarsson←▼A. Magnússon

88'▲K. Kristjánsson←▼I. Baldé

88'▲Ý. Geirsson←▼S. Gunnarsson

Thor Akureyri substitutes

SindrasonRúnarssonKristjánssonGeirssonLalićIngasonAffi

Match Recap: Grindavik vs Thor Akureyri

Thor Akureyri beat Grindavik 4-3 in 1. Deild on May 24, 2025.

Goals: I. Sigurðsson (2'), V. Hauksson (28' o.g.), S. Gunnarsson (30', 75'), B. Hermannsson (47'), O. Sigurjónsson (72'), Á. Finnbogason (90+8' pen).

The match was played at Stakkavíkurvöllur in Grindavík.

Grindavik vs Thor Akureyri — 1. Deild 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Grindavik vs Thor Akureyri