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Thor Akureyri vs Fjolnir — 1. Deild 2026

Thor Akureyri
Thor Akureyri
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Fjolnir
Fjolnir
S. Gunnarsson 84' (pen)
C. Bayiha 17'
O. Thorhalsson 45'
9/6/20251. Deild1. Deild · Round 21Boginn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Thor Akureyri42%
×Draw23%
Fjolnir34%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Thor Akureyri
1.73
Fjolnir
1.54

Thor Akureyri creates 12% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 22 away

creates per match

Thor Akureyri
1.81
Fjolnir
1.82

allows per match

Thor Akureyri
1.25
Fjolnir
1.64

finishing

Thor Akureyri+0.00on par
Fjolnir+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Thor Akureyri ↓

Fjolnir →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Thor Akureyri or draw
66%
Thor Akureyri or Fjolnir
77%
Draw or Fjolnir
58%

Winning margin

Thor Akureyri wins by 2+
22%
Fjolnir wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Thor Akureyri 1+ goals
82%
Thor Akureyri 2+ goals
52%
Thor Akureyri 3+ goals
25%
Fjolnir 1+ goals
79%
Fjolnir 2+ goals
45%
Fjolnir 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Thor Akureyri (draw refunded)
55%
Fjolnir (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Thor Akureyri at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.25 · 16 matches

Fjolnir away — creates 1.82, concedes 1.64 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Thor Akureyri attack 1.81 + Fjolnir defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.73

Fjolnir attack 1.82 + Thor Akureyri defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Thor Akureyri scores more
42%
level
23%
Fjolnir scores more
34%

Thor Akureyri at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Thor Akureyri will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'
C. Bayiha
45'
O. Thorhalsson
56'
R. Victor
62'
B. Gudjonsson
66'
K. Arnarsson
72'
C. Bayiha← C. Bayiha
72'
H. Runarsson← H. Runarsson
72'
A. Arnason← A. Arnason
79'
B. T. Hafstein
83'
S. Hardarson
84'
S. GunnarssonPenalty
85'
H. Hilmarsson← H. Hilmarsson
86'
O. Thorhalsson← O. Thorhalsson
89'
S. Gunnarsson← S. Gunnarsson

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Deild: Thor Akureyri 2–1 Fjolnir

Thor Akureyri beat Fjolnir 2-1 in 1. Deild on September 6, 2025.

Goals: C. Bayiha (17'), O. Thorhalsson (45'), S. Gunnarsson (84' pen).

The match was played at Boginn in Akureyri.