Fjolnir 0–5 Thor Akureyri: Result & Stats

Fjolnir

FT

0 – 5

HT: 0 – 2

Thor Akureyri

6/27/2025

1. Deild · Round 10Fjölnisvöllur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Fjolnir32%

×Draw21%

Thor Akureyri48%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FjolnirExpected goals in this matchThor Akureyri

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

2.21

Fjolnir

1.79

Thor Akureyri

2.21

Thor Akureyri creates 23% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 13 away

1.74

creates per match

2.38

2.05

allows per match

1.85

creates per match

Fjolnir

1.74

Thor Akureyri

2.38

allows per match

Fjolnir

2.05

Thor Akureyri

1.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fjolnir+0.00on par

Thor Akureyri+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fjolnir ↓

Thor Akureyri →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–25%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–28%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

56%44%4.5

36%64%

Double chance

Fjolnir or draw

52%

Fjolnir or Thor Akureyri

79%

Draw or Thor Akureyri

68%

Winning margin

Fjolnir wins by 2+

16%

Thor Akureyri wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Fjolnir 1+ goals

83%

Fjolnir 2+ goals

53%

Fjolnir 3+ goals

26%

Thor Akureyri 1+ goals

89%

Thor Akureyri 2+ goals

65%

Thor Akureyri 3+ goals

38%

Draw no bet

Fjolnir (draw refunded)

40%

Thor Akureyri (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

67%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fjolnir at home — creates 1.74, concedes 2.05 · 19 matches

Thor Akureyri away — creates 2.38, concedes 1.85 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fjolnir attack 1.74 + Thor Akureyri defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.79

Thor Akureyri attack 2.38 + Fjolnir defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 2.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Fjolnir scores more

32%

level

21%

Thor Akureyri scores more

48%

Thor Akureyri at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Thor Akureyri will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff