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Thisted FC vs Silkeborg — 1. Division 2018

Thisted FC
Thisted FC
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 3
Silkeborg
Silkeborg
C. Mortensen 46'
M. Mattsson 78'
R. Schwartz 45', 41', 30' (pen)
11/25/20181. Division1. Division · Round 19Sparekassen Thy Arena (Thisted)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Thisted FC23%
×Draw22%
Silkeborg56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Thisted FC
1.19
Silkeborg
1.98

Silkeborg creates 66% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 32 away

creates per match

Thisted FC
1.25
Silkeborg
1.91

allows per match

Thisted FC
2.06
Silkeborg
1.13

finishing

Thisted FC+0.00on par
Silkeborg+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Thisted FC ↓

Silkeborg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–28%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Thisted FC or draw
44%
Thisted FC or Silkeborg
78%
Draw or Silkeborg
77%

Winning margin

Thisted FC wins by 2+
9%
Silkeborg wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

Thisted FC 1+ goals
70%
Thisted FC 2+ goals
33%
Thisted FC 3+ goals
12%
Silkeborg 1+ goals
86%
Silkeborg 2+ goals
59%
Silkeborg 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Thisted FC (draw refunded)
29%
Silkeborg (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Thisted FC at home — creates 1.25, concedes 2.06 · 16 matches

Silkeborg away — creates 1.91, concedes 1.13 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Thisted FC attack 1.25 + Silkeborg defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.19

Silkeborg attack 1.91 + Thisted FC defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Thisted FC scores more
23%
level
22%
Silkeborg scores more
56%

Silkeborg at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Silkeborg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'
R. SchwartzPenalty
41'
R. Schwartz
45'
R. Schwartz
46'
C. Mortensen
78'
M. Mattsson

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Thisted FC vs Silkeborg

Silkeborg beat Thisted FC 4-1 in 1. Division on November 25, 2018.

Goals: R. Schwartz (30' pen, 41', 45'), C. Mortensen (46'), M. Mattsson (78').

The match was played at Sparekassen Thy Arena (Thisted).