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Thisted FC vs Ishøj — 2nd Division - Group 1 2018

Thisted FC
Thisted FC
FT
3 – 3
HT: 1 – 3
Ishøj
Ishøj
J. Dalgaard 72'
C. Wagner 49'
J. Hansen 9'
M. Al Atlassi 25', 23'
F. Munck 6'
5/24/20252nd Division - Group 12nd Division - Group 1 · Relegation Round - 7Sparekassen Thy Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Thisted FC42%
×Draw25%
Ishøj32%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Thisted FC
1.48
Ishøj
1.25

Thisted FC creates 18% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 32 away

creates per match

Thisted FC
1.18
Ishøj
1.31

allows per match

Thisted FC
1.20
Ishøj
1.78

finishing

Thisted FC+0.00on par
Ishøj+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Thisted FC ↓

Ishøj →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Thisted FC or draw
68%
Thisted FC or Ishøj
75%
Draw or Ishøj
58%

Winning margin

Thisted FC wins by 2+
21%
Ishøj wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Thisted FC 1+ goals
77%
Thisted FC 2+ goals
43%
Thisted FC 3+ goals
19%
Ishøj 1+ goals
71%
Ishøj 2+ goals
36%
Ishøj 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Thisted FC (draw refunded)
57%
Ishøj (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Thisted FC at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.20 · 87 matches

Ishøj away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.78 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Thisted FC attack 1.18 + Ishøj defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.48

Ishøj attack 1.31 + Thisted FC defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Thisted FC scores more
42%
level
25%
Ishøj scores more
32%

Thisted FC at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Thisted FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'
F. Munck
9'
J. Hansen
23'
M. Al Atlassi
25'
M. Al Atlassi
35'
L. Nielsen← M. Gyldenlove Lyebalk
40'
E. Salamoun← E. Salamoun
46'
J. Dalgaard← J. Dalgaard
46'
M. Andersen← M. Andersen
49'
C. Wagner
72'
J. Dalgaard
83'
H. Tumturk← H. Tumturk
83'
E. Kanturovski← E. Kanturovski
90+1'
V. Engstrom← V. Engstrom

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Thisted FC vs Ishøj

Thisted FC and Ishøj drew 3-3 in 2nd Division - Group 1 on May 24, 2025.

Goals: F. Munck (6'), J. Hansen (9'), M. Al Atlassi (23', 25'), C. Wagner (49'), J. Dalgaard (72').

The match was played at Sparekassen Thy Arena in Thisted.