Ishøj 3–4 Thisted FC: Result & Stats

Ishøj

FT

3 – 4

HT: 0 – 1

Thisted FC

M. Azaquoun 85'

J. Moussa 78'

T. Pedersen 74'

M. Immersen 55', 33'

C. Wagner 51'

J. Foe Nuphaus 49'

4/26/2025

2nd Division - Group 1 · Relegation Round - 2Ishøj Idrætscenter

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Ishøj39%

×Draw26%

Thisted FC35%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IshøjExpected goals in this matchThisted FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.29

Ishøj

1.36

Thisted FC

1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 32 home / 87 away

1.25

creates per match

1.20

1.38

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Ishøj

1.25

Thisted FC

1.20

allows per match

Ishøj

1.38

Thisted FC

1.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ishøj+0.00on par

Thisted FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ishøj ↓

Thisted FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Ishøj or draw

65%

Ishøj or Thisted FC

74%

Draw or Thisted FC

61%

Winning margin

Ishøj wins by 2+

18%

Thisted FC wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Ishøj 1+ goals

74%

Ishøj 2+ goals

39%

Ishøj 3+ goals

16%

Thisted FC 1+ goals

72%

Thisted FC 2+ goals

37%

Thisted FC 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Ishøj (draw refunded)

52%

Thisted FC (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ishøj at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.38 · 32 matches

Thisted FC away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.48 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ishøj attack 1.25 + Thisted FC defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.36

Thisted FC attack 1.20 + Ishøj defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Ishøj scores more

39%

level

26%

Thisted FC scores more

35%

Ishøj at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Ishøj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

33'

M. Immersen

34'

I. Hassan

46'

J. Moussa← J. Moussa

49'

J. Foe Nuphaus

51'

C. Wagner

55'

M. Immersen

55'

C. Horby

55'

M. Al Atlassi

65'

B. Masaad← B. Masaad

68'

M. Immersen

69'

L. Agesen← L. Agesen

74'

T. Pedersen

75'

E. Kjer← E. Kjer

76'

M. Al Atlassi← S. E. Jensen

78'

J. Moussa

85'

M. Azaquoun

88'

E. Kanturovski← E. Kanturovski

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff