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Thisted FC vs Fremad Amager — 2nd Division - Group 1 2018

Thisted FC
Thisted FC
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Fremad Amager
Fremad Amager
9/22/20242nd Division - Group 12nd Division - Group 1 · Round 8Sparekassen Thy Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Thisted FC40%
×Draw27%
Fremad Amager33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Thisted FC
1.33
Fremad Amager
1.19

Thisted FC creates 12% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 48 away

creates per match

Thisted FC
1.18
Fremad Amager
1.17

allows per match

Thisted FC
1.20
Fremad Amager
1.48

finishing

Thisted FC+0.00on par
Fremad Amager+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Thisted FC ↓

Fremad Amager →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Thisted FC or draw
67%
Thisted FC or Fremad Amager
73%
Draw or Fremad Amager
60%

Winning margin

Thisted FC wins by 2+
18%
Fremad Amager wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Thisted FC 1+ goals
74%
Thisted FC 2+ goals
38%
Thisted FC 3+ goals
15%
Fremad Amager 1+ goals
70%
Fremad Amager 2+ goals
33%
Fremad Amager 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Thisted FC (draw refunded)
55%
Fremad Amager (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Thisted FC at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.20 · 87 matches

Fremad Amager away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.48 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Thisted FC attack 1.18 + Fremad Amager defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.33

Fremad Amager attack 1.17 + Thisted FC defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Thisted FC scores more
40%
level
27%
Fremad Amager scores more
33%

Thisted FC at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Thisted FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Thisted FC vs Fremad Amager

Fremad Amager beat Thisted FC 3-1 in 2nd Division - Group 1 on September 22, 2024.

The match was played at Sparekassen Thy Arena in Thisted.