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Fremad Amager vs Thisted FC — 2nd Division - Group 1 2018

Fremad Amager
Fremad Amager
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Thisted FC
Thisted FC
4/12/20252nd Division - Group 12nd Division - Group 1 · Round 22Sundby Idrætspark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Fremad Amager44%
×Draw27%
Thisted FC29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fremad Amager
1.40
Thisted FC
1.09

Fremad Amager creates 28% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 87 away

creates per match

Fremad Amager
1.31
Thisted FC
1.20

allows per match

Fremad Amager
0.98
Thisted FC
1.48

finishing

Fremad Amager+0.00on par
Thisted FC+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fremad Amager ↓

Thisted FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Fremad Amager or draw
71%
Fremad Amager or Thisted FC
73%
Draw or Thisted FC
56%

Winning margin

Fremad Amager wins by 2+
21%
Thisted FC wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Fremad Amager 1+ goals
75%
Fremad Amager 2+ goals
41%
Fremad Amager 3+ goals
17%
Thisted FC 1+ goals
66%
Thisted FC 2+ goals
30%
Thisted FC 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Fremad Amager (draw refunded)
60%
Thisted FC (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fremad Amager at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.98 · 48 matches

Thisted FC away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.48 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fremad Amager attack 1.31 + Thisted FC defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.40

Thisted FC attack 1.20 + Fremad Amager defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Fremad Amager scores more
44%
level
27%
Thisted FC scores more
29%

Fremad Amager at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Fremad Amager will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fremad Amager vs Thisted FC

Fremad Amager beat Thisted FC 3-0 in 2nd Division - Group 1 on April 12, 2025.

The match was played at Sundby Idrætspark in København.