Thisted FC 0–0 Frem: Result & Stats

Thisted FC

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Frem

3/23/2025

2nd Division - Group 1 · Round 19Sparekassen Thy Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Thisted FC42%

×Draw27%

Frem31%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Thisted FCExpected goals in this matchFrem

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.13

Thisted FC

1.36

Frem

1.13

Thisted FC creates 20% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 53 away

1.18

creates per match

1.06

1.20

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Thisted FC

1.18

Frem

1.06

allows per match

Thisted FC

1.20

Frem

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Thisted FC+0.00on par

Frem+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Thisted FC ↓

Frem →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Thisted FC or draw

69%

Thisted FC or Frem

73%

Draw or Frem

58%

Winning margin

Thisted FC wins by 2+

20%

Frem wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Thisted FC 1+ goals

74%

Thisted FC 2+ goals

39%

Thisted FC 3+ goals

16%

Frem 1+ goals

68%

Frem 2+ goals

31%

Frem 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Thisted FC (draw refunded)

57%

Frem (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Thisted FC at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.20 · 87 matches

Frem away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.55 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Thisted FC attack 1.18 + Frem defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.36

Frem attack 1.06 + Thisted FC defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Thisted FC scores more

42%

level

27%

Frem scores more

31%

Thisted FC at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Thisted FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff