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Frem vs Thisted FC — 2nd Division - Group 1 2018

Frem
Frem
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Thisted FC
Thisted FC
M. Immersen 51'
C. Wagner 32'
5/13/20252nd Division - Group 12nd Division - Group 1 · Relegation Round - 5Valby Idrætspark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Frem42%
×Draw26%
Thisted FC32%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Frem
1.44
Thisted FC
1.23

Frem creates 17% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 87 away

creates per match

Frem
1.40
Thisted FC
1.20

allows per match

Frem
1.26
Thisted FC
1.48

finishing

Frem+0.00on par
Thisted FC+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Frem ↓

Thisted FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Frem or draw
68%
Frem or Thisted FC
74%
Draw or Thisted FC
58%

Winning margin

Frem wins by 2+
20%
Thisted FC wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Frem 1+ goals
76%
Frem 2+ goals
42%
Frem 3+ goals
18%
Thisted FC 1+ goals
71%
Thisted FC 2+ goals
35%
Thisted FC 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Frem (draw refunded)
57%
Thisted FC (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Frem at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.26 · 53 matches

Thisted FC away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.48 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Frem attack 1.40 + Thisted FC defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.44

Thisted FC attack 1.20 + Frem defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Frem scores more
42%
level
26%
Thisted FC scores more
32%

Frem at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Frem will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

32'
C. Wagner
43'
G. Hansen
46'
E. Seedorff← E. Seedorff
51'
M. Immersen
57'
J. Shaibu← J. Shaibu
57'
M. Winkel← M. Winkel
65'
E. Lagergaard
72'
V. Engstrom← V. Engstrom
74'
D. Warmbach
77'
B. Warlo← B. Warlo
88'
C. Wagner← M. Gyldenlove Lyebalk

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2nd Division - Group 1: Frem 0–2 Thisted FC

Thisted FC beat Frem 2-0 in 2nd Division - Group 1 on May 13, 2025.

Goals: C. Wagner (32'), M. Immersen (51').

The match was played at Valby Idrætspark in København.