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Thisted FC vs FC Helsingor — 2nd Division - Group 1 2018

Thisted FC
Thisted FC
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
FC Helsingor
FC Helsingor
J. Foe Nuphaus 70'
T. Augustinus-Jensen 61'
H. Laerke 51'
5/18/20252nd Division - Group 12nd Division - Group 1 · Relegation Round - 6Sparekassen Thy Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Thisted FC38%
×Draw26%
FC Helsingor36%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Thisted FC
1.38
FC Helsingor
1.34

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 87 home / 40 away

creates per match

Thisted FC
1.18
FC Helsingor
1.48

allows per match

Thisted FC
1.20
FC Helsingor
1.57

finishing

Thisted FC+0.00on par
FC Helsingor+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Thisted FC ↓

FC Helsingor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Thisted FC or draw
64%
Thisted FC or FC Helsingor
74%
Draw or FC Helsingor
62%

Winning margin

Thisted FC wins by 2+
18%
FC Helsingor wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Thisted FC 1+ goals
75%
Thisted FC 2+ goals
40%
Thisted FC 3+ goals
16%
FC Helsingor 1+ goals
74%
FC Helsingor 2+ goals
39%
FC Helsingor 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Thisted FC (draw refunded)
51%
FC Helsingor (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Thisted FC at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.20 · 87 matches

FC Helsingor away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.57 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Thisted FC attack 1.18 + FC Helsingor defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.38

FC Helsingor attack 1.48 + Thisted FC defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Thisted FC scores more
38%
level
26%
FC Helsingor scores more
36%

Thisted FC at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Thisted FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'
J. Foe Nuphaus
51'
H. Laerke
61'
T. Augustinus-Jensen
70'
J. Foe Nuphaus
72'
L. Agesen← L. Agesen
75'
T. Augustinus-Jensen← R. Sjoholm
80'
L. Nielsen← M. Gyldenlove Lyebalk
82'
R. Linden← R. Linden
82'
R. Marcus← R. Marcus
85'
R. Marcus
88'
C. Wagner← J. Gakpo
90'
E. Larsen← E. Larsen

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Thisted FC vs FC Helsingor

FC Helsingor beat Thisted FC 2-1 in 2nd Division - Group 1 on May 18, 2025.

Goals: H. Laerke (51'), T. Augustinus-Jensen (61'), J. Foe Nuphaus (70').

The match was played at Sparekassen Thy Arena in Thisted.