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FC Helsingor vs Thisted FC — 2nd Division - Group 1 2018

FC Helsingor
FC Helsingor
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Thisted FC
Thisted FC
T. Augustinus-Jensen 68'
M. Knudsen 32'
M. Immersen 80'
M. Maarouf 60'
C. Wagner 15'
5/3/20252nd Division - Group 12nd Division - Group 1 · Relegation Round - 3Helsingør Ny Stadion OPV

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

FC Helsingor47%
×Draw24%
Thisted FC29%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Helsingor
1.71
Thisted FC
1.30

FC Helsingor creates 32% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 87 away

creates per match

FC Helsingor
1.93
Thisted FC
1.20

allows per match

FC Helsingor
1.41
Thisted FC
1.48

finishing

FC Helsingor+0.00on par
Thisted FC+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Helsingor ↓

Thisted FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

FC Helsingor or draw
71%
FC Helsingor or Thisted FC
76%
Draw or Thisted FC
53%

Winning margin

FC Helsingor wins by 2+
25%
Thisted FC wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

FC Helsingor 1+ goals
82%
FC Helsingor 2+ goals
51%
FC Helsingor 3+ goals
24%
Thisted FC 1+ goals
73%
Thisted FC 2+ goals
37%
Thisted FC 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

FC Helsingor (draw refunded)
62%
Thisted FC (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Helsingor at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.41 · 41 matches

Thisted FC away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.48 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Helsingor attack 1.93 + Thisted FC defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.71

Thisted FC attack 1.20 + FC Helsingor defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

FC Helsingor scores more
47%
level
24%
Thisted FC scores more
29%

FC Helsingor at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "FC Helsingor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'
C. Wagner
17'
M. Immersen
32'
O. Jensen
32'
M. Knudsen
59'
N. Bagger
60'
M. Maarouf
68'
T. Augustinus-Jensen
72'
A. Diouf← A. Diouf
77'
T. Elmelund
77'
F. Karlsen← F. Karlsen
80'
M. Immersen
86'
E. Larsen← E. Larsen
86'
R. Sjoholm← R. Sjoholm
90+3'
O. Overgaard
90+6'
L. Agesen← L. Agesen

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2nd Division - Group 1: FC Helsingor 2–3 Thisted FC

Thisted FC beat FC Helsingor 3-2 in 2nd Division - Group 1 on May 3, 2025.

Goals: C. Wagner (15'), M. Knudsen (32'), M. Maarouf (60'), T. Augustinus-Jensen (68'), M. Immersen (80').

The match was played at Helsingør Ny Stadion OPV in Helsingør.