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Thisted FC vs Esbjerg — 2nd Division - Group 1 2018

Thisted FC
Thisted FC
FT
2 – 5
HT: 0 – 3
Esbjerg
Esbjerg
3/17/20242nd Division - Group 12nd Division - Group 1 · Round 18Sparekassen Thy Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Thisted FC28%
×Draw25%
Esbjerg47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Thisted FC
1.19
Esbjerg
1.61

Esbjerg creates 35% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 31 away

creates per match

Thisted FC
1.18
Esbjerg
2.03

allows per match

Thisted FC
1.20
Esbjerg
1.19

finishing

Thisted FC+0.00on par
Esbjerg+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Thisted FC ↓

Esbjerg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Thisted FC or draw
53%
Thisted FC or Esbjerg
75%
Draw or Esbjerg
72%

Winning margin

Thisted FC wins by 2+
11%
Esbjerg wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Thisted FC 1+ goals
70%
Thisted FC 2+ goals
33%
Thisted FC 3+ goals
12%
Esbjerg 1+ goals
80%
Esbjerg 2+ goals
48%
Esbjerg 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Thisted FC (draw refunded)
37%
Esbjerg (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Thisted FC at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.20 · 87 matches

Esbjerg away — creates 2.03, concedes 1.19 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Thisted FC attack 1.18 + Esbjerg defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.19

Esbjerg attack 2.03 + Thisted FC defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Thisted FC scores more
28%
level
25%
Esbjerg scores more
47%

Esbjerg at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Esbjerg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2nd Division - Group 1: Thisted FC 2–5 Esbjerg

Esbjerg beat Thisted FC 5-2 in 2nd Division - Group 1 on March 17, 2024.

The match was played at Sparekassen Thy Arena in Thisted.