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Esbjerg vs Thisted FC — 2nd Division - Group 1 2018

Esbjerg
Esbjerg
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Thisted FC
Thisted FC
6/4/20232nd Division - Group 12nd Division - Group 1 · Promotion Group - 8Blue Water Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Esbjerg59%
×Draw21%
Thisted FC20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Esbjerg
2.09
Thisted FC
1.15

Esbjerg creates 82% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 87 away

creates per match

Esbjerg
2.71
Thisted FC
1.20

allows per match

Esbjerg
1.10
Thisted FC
1.48

finishing

Esbjerg+0.00on par
Thisted FC+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Esbjerg ↓

Thisted FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Esbjerg or draw
80%
Esbjerg or Thisted FC
79%
Draw or Thisted FC
41%

Winning margin

Esbjerg wins by 2+
36%
Thisted FC wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Esbjerg 1+ goals
88%
Esbjerg 2+ goals
62%
Esbjerg 3+ goals
34%
Thisted FC 1+ goals
68%
Thisted FC 2+ goals
32%
Thisted FC 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Esbjerg (draw refunded)
74%
Thisted FC (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Esbjerg at home — creates 2.71, concedes 1.10 · 31 matches

Thisted FC away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.48 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Esbjerg attack 2.71 + Thisted FC defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 2.09

Thisted FC attack 1.20 + Esbjerg defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Esbjerg scores more
59%
level
21%
Thisted FC scores more
20%

Esbjerg at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Esbjerg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2nd Division - Group 1: Esbjerg 2–1 Thisted FC

Esbjerg beat Thisted FC 2-1 in 2nd Division - Group 1 on June 4, 2023.

The match was played at Blue Water Arena in Esbjerg.