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Thimphu Raven vs Thimphu City — Premier League 2023

Thimphu Raven
Thimphu Raven
FT
2 – 5
HT: 1 – 2
Thimphu City
Thimphu City
11/5/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 6Changlimithang National Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Thimphu Raven11%
×Draw13%
Thimphu City77%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Thimphu Raven
1.29
Thimphu City
3.48

Thimphu City creates 170% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 32 away

creates per match

Thimphu Raven
1.00
Thimphu City
3.06

allows per match

Thimphu Raven
3.89
Thimphu City
1.59

finishing

Thimphu Raven+0.00on par
Thimphu City+0.00on par

Total goals

84%Over
  • Over84
  • Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Thimphu Raven ↓

Thimphu City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–25%
0–36%
0–46%
1
1–01%
1–14%
1–27%
1–38%
1–47%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–25%
2–35%
2–45%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–22%
3–32%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–3 (8%) · grid covers 77% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
84%16%3.5
68%32%4.5
49%51%

Double chance

Thimphu Raven or draw
23%
Thimphu Raven or Thimphu City
87%
Draw or Thimphu City
89%

Winning margin

Thimphu Raven wins by 2+
4%
Thimphu City wins by 2+
59%

Team goals

Thimphu Raven 1+ goals
72%
Thimphu Raven 2+ goals
37%
Thimphu Raven 3+ goals
14%
Thimphu City 1+ goals
97%
Thimphu City 2+ goals
85%
Thimphu City 3+ goals
65%

Draw no bet

Thimphu Raven (draw refunded)
12%
Thimphu City (draw refunded)
88%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Thimphu Raven at home — creates 1.00, concedes 3.89 · 9 matches

Thimphu City away — creates 3.06, concedes 1.59 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Thimphu Raven attack 1.00 + Thimphu City defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.29

Thimphu City attack 3.06 + Thimphu Raven defence 3.89 → ÷2 → 3.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Thimphu Raven scores more
11%
level
13%
Thimphu City scores more
77%

Thimphu City at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Thimphu City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Thimphu Raven vs Thimphu City

Thimphu City beat Thimphu Raven 5-2 in Premier League on November 5, 2023.

The match was played at Changlimithang National Stadium in Thimphu.