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Thimphu City vs Thimphu Raven — Premier League 2023

Thimphu City
Thimphu City
FT
4 – 1
HT: 4 – 0
Thimphu Raven
Thimphu Raven
8/17/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 2Changlimithang National Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Thimphu City83%
×Draw10%
Thimphu Raven7%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Thimphu City
3.54
Thimphu Raven
0.97

Thimphu City creates 265% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 9 away

creates per match

Thimphu City
3.42
Thimphu Raven
1.00

allows per match

Thimphu City
0.94
Thimphu Raven
3.67

finishing

Thimphu City+0.00on par
Thimphu Raven+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Thimphu City ↓

Thimphu Raven →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–14%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–17%
4–24%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (9%) · grid covers 77% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
63%37%4.5
43%57%

Double chance

Thimphu City or draw
93%
Thimphu City or Thimphu Raven
90%
Draw or Thimphu Raven
17%

Winning margin

Thimphu City wins by 2+
66%
Thimphu Raven wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Thimphu City 1+ goals
97%
Thimphu City 2+ goals
86%
Thimphu City 3+ goals
66%
Thimphu Raven 1+ goals
62%
Thimphu Raven 2+ goals
25%
Thimphu Raven 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Thimphu City (draw refunded)
93%
Thimphu Raven (draw refunded)
7%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Thimphu City at home — creates 3.42, concedes 0.94 · 31 matches

Thimphu Raven away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.67 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Thimphu City attack 3.42 + Thimphu Raven defence 3.67 → ÷2 → 3.54

Thimphu Raven attack 1.00 + Thimphu City defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 83%?"

Thimphu City scores more
83%
level
10%
Thimphu Raven scores more
7%

Thimphu City at 83% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 83% does not mean "Thimphu City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Thimphu City 4–1 Thimphu Raven

Thimphu City beat Thimphu Raven 4-1 in Premier League on August 17, 2023.

The match was played at Changlimithang National Stadium in Thimphu.