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Thimphu Raven vs Druk Lhayul — Premier League 2023

Thimphu Raven
Thimphu Raven
FT
2 – 6
HT: 0 – 3
Druk Lhayul
Druk Lhayul
12/2/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 9RTC Football Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Thimphu Raven26%
×Draw18%
Druk Lhayul56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Thimphu Raven
1.95
Druk Lhayul
2.83

Druk Lhayul creates 45% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 9 away

creates per match

Thimphu Raven
1.00
Druk Lhayul
1.78

allows per match

Thimphu Raven
3.89
Druk Lhayul
2.89

finishing

Thimphu Raven+0.00on par
Druk Lhayul+0.00on par

Total goals

85%Over
  • Over85
  • Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

81%Yes
  • Yes81
  • No19

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Thimphu Raven ↓

Druk Lhayul →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–23%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–27%
1–36%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
85%15%3.5
69%31%4.5
51%49%

Double chance

Thimphu Raven or draw
44%
Thimphu Raven or Druk Lhayul
82%
Draw or Druk Lhayul
74%

Winning margin

Thimphu Raven wins by 2+
13%
Druk Lhayul wins by 2+
36%

Team goals

Thimphu Raven 1+ goals
86%
Thimphu Raven 2+ goals
58%
Thimphu Raven 3+ goals
31%
Druk Lhayul 1+ goals
94%
Druk Lhayul 2+ goals
77%
Druk Lhayul 3+ goals
53%

Draw no bet

Thimphu Raven (draw refunded)
32%
Druk Lhayul (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
76%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Thimphu Raven at home — creates 1.00, concedes 3.89 · 9 matches

Druk Lhayul away — creates 1.78, concedes 2.89 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Thimphu Raven attack 1.00 + Druk Lhayul defence 2.89 → ÷2 → 1.95

Druk Lhayul attack 1.78 + Thimphu Raven defence 3.89 → ÷2 → 2.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Thimphu Raven scores more
26%
level
18%
Druk Lhayul scores more
56%

Druk Lhayul at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Druk Lhayul will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Thimphu Raven vs Druk Lhayul

Druk Lhayul beat Thimphu Raven 6-2 in Premier League on December 2, 2023.

The match was played at RTC Football Ground in Thimphu.