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Druk Lhayul vs Thimphu Raven — Premier League 2023

Druk Lhayul
Druk Lhayul
FT
6 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Thimphu Raven
Thimphu Raven
9/20/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 4Changlimithang National Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Druk Lhayul64%
×Draw15%
Thimphu Raven20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Druk Lhayul
3.55
Thimphu Raven
2.05

Druk Lhayul creates 73% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 9 away

creates per match

Druk Lhayul
3.44
Thimphu Raven
1.00

allows per match

Druk Lhayul
3.11
Thimphu Raven
3.67

finishing

Druk Lhayul+0.00on par
Thimphu Raven+0.00on par

Total goals

91%Over
  • Over91
  • Under9

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

84%Yes
  • Yes84
  • No16

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Druk Lhayul ↓

Thimphu Raven →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–01%
1–13%
1–23%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–26%
4–34%
4–42%

Most likely 3–1 (6%) · grid covers 73% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
97%3%2.5
91%9%3.5
79%21%4.5
63%37%

Double chance

Druk Lhayul or draw
80%
Druk Lhayul or Thimphu Raven
85%
Draw or Thimphu Raven
36%

Winning margin

Druk Lhayul wins by 2+
46%
Thimphu Raven wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Druk Lhayul 1+ goals
97%
Druk Lhayul 2+ goals
86%
Druk Lhayul 3+ goals
67%
Thimphu Raven 1+ goals
87%
Thimphu Raven 2+ goals
61%
Thimphu Raven 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Druk Lhayul (draw refunded)
76%
Thimphu Raven (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
81%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Druk Lhayul at home — creates 3.44, concedes 3.11 · 9 matches

Thimphu Raven away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.67 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Druk Lhayul attack 3.44 + Thimphu Raven defence 3.67 → ÷2 → 3.55

Thimphu Raven attack 1.00 + Druk Lhayul defence 3.11 → ÷2 → 2.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Druk Lhayul scores more
64%
level
15%
Thimphu Raven scores more
20%

Druk Lhayul at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Druk Lhayul will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Druk Lhayul vs Thimphu Raven

Druk Lhayul beat Thimphu Raven 6-1 in Premier League on September 20, 2023.

The match was played at Changlimithang National Stadium in Thimphu.