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Thimphu City vs Tensung — Premier League 2023

Thimphu City
Thimphu City
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Tensung
Tensung
7/21/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 5Changlimithang National Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Thimphu City77%
×Draw13%
Tensung9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Thimphu City
3.02
Tensung
0.98

Thimphu City creates 208% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 32 away

creates per match

Thimphu City
3.42
Tensung
1.03

allows per match

Thimphu City
0.94
Tensung
2.63

finishing

Thimphu City+0.00on par
Tensung+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Thimphu City ↓

Tensung →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–19%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Thimphu City or draw
91%
Thimphu City or Tensung
87%
Draw or Tensung
23%

Winning margin

Thimphu City wins by 2+
58%
Tensung wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Thimphu City 1+ goals
95%
Thimphu City 2+ goals
80%
Thimphu City 3+ goals
57%
Tensung 1+ goals
62%
Tensung 2+ goals
26%
Tensung 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Thimphu City (draw refunded)
89%
Tensung (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Thimphu City at home — creates 3.42, concedes 0.94 · 31 matches

Tensung away — creates 1.03, concedes 2.63 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Thimphu City attack 3.42 + Tensung defence 2.63 → ÷2 → 3.02

Tensung attack 1.03 + Thimphu City defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Thimphu City scores more
77%
level
13%
Tensung scores more
9%

Thimphu City at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Thimphu City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Thimphu City vs Tensung

Thimphu City beat Tensung 2-1 in Premier League on July 21, 2024.

The match was played at Changlimithang National Stadium in Thimphu.