Tensung 0–4 Thimphu City: Result & Stats

Tensung

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Thimphu City

Unknown 85', 55', 17'

dawa tshering 36'

7/15/2026

Premier League

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Tensung24%

×Draw19%

Thimphu City57%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TensungExpected goals in this matchThimphu City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

2.42

Tensung

1.52

Thimphu City

2.42

Thimphu City creates 59% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 32 away

1.45

creates per match

3.06

1.77

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Tensung

1.45

Thimphu City

3.06

allows per match

Tensung

1.77

Thimphu City

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tensung+0.00on par

Thimphu City+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tensung ↓

Thimphu City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–26%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–29%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Tensung or draw

43%

Tensung or Thimphu City

81%

Draw or Thimphu City

76%

Winning margin

Tensung wins by 2+

11%

Thimphu City wins by 2+

36%

Team goals

Tensung 1+ goals

78%

Tensung 2+ goals

45%

Tensung 3+ goals

20%

Thimphu City 1+ goals

91%

Thimphu City 2+ goals

69%

Thimphu City 3+ goals

43%

Draw no bet

Tensung (draw refunded)

29%

Thimphu City (draw refunded)

71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tensung at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.77 · 31 matches

Thimphu City away — creates 3.06, concedes 1.59 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tensung attack 1.45 + Thimphu City defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.52

Thimphu City attack 3.06 + Tensung defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 2.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Tensung scores more

24%

level

19%

Thimphu City scores more

57%

Thimphu City at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Thimphu City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

36'

dawa tshering

53'

55'

78'

85'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff