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Thimphu City vs Samtse — Premier League 2023

Thimphu City
Thimphu City
FT
6 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Samtse
Samtse
7/6/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 4Changlimithang National Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Thimphu City82%
×Draw10%
Samtse7%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Thimphu City
3.71
Samtse
1.11

Thimphu City creates 234% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 18 away

creates per match

Thimphu City
3.42
Samtse
1.28

allows per match

Thimphu City
0.94
Samtse
4.00

finishing

Thimphu City+0.00on par
Samtse+0.00on par

Total goals

85%Over
  • Over85
  • Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Thimphu City ↓

Samtse →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–14%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–18%
4–24%
4–32%
4–40%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 74% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
85%15%3.5
68%32%4.5
48%52%

Double chance

Thimphu City or draw
93%
Thimphu City or Samtse
90%
Draw or Samtse
18%

Winning margin

Thimphu City wins by 2+
66%
Samtse wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Thimphu City 1+ goals
97%
Thimphu City 2+ goals
87%
Thimphu City 3+ goals
69%
Samtse 1+ goals
67%
Samtse 2+ goals
30%
Samtse 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Thimphu City (draw refunded)
92%
Samtse (draw refunded)
8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Thimphu City at home — creates 3.42, concedes 0.94 · 31 matches

Samtse away — creates 1.28, concedes 4.00 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Thimphu City attack 3.42 + Samtse defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 3.71

Samtse attack 1.28 + Thimphu City defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 82%?"

Thimphu City scores more
82%
level
10%
Samtse scores more
7%

Thimphu City at 82% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 82% does not mean "Thimphu City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Thimphu City vs Samtse

Thimphu City beat Samtse 6-1 in Premier League on July 6, 2024.

The match was played at Changlimithang National Stadium in Thimphu.