Samtse 1–10 Thimphu City: Result & Stats

Samtse

FT

1 – 10

HT: 0 – 5

Thimphu City

9/23/2025

Premier League · Regular SeasonSamtse Dzongkhag Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Samtse20%

×Draw16%

Thimphu City64%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SamtseExpected goals in this matchThimphu City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.91

3.37

Samtse

1.91

Thimphu City

3.37

Thimphu City creates 76% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 32 away

2.22

creates per match

3.06

3.67

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Samtse

2.22

Thimphu City

3.06

allows per match

Samtse

3.67

Thimphu City

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Samtse+0.00on par

Thimphu City+0.00on par

Total goals

Over89
Under11

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes82
No18

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Samtse ↓

Thimphu City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–23%

0–33%

0–43%

1

1–01%

1–13%

1–26%

1–37%

1–46%

2

2–01%

2–13%

2–26%

2–36%

2–45%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–24%

3–34%

3–43%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–22%

4–32%

4–42%

Most likely 1–3 (7%) · grid covers 76% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

97%3%2.5

89%11%3.5

76%24%4.5

58%42%

Double chance

Samtse or draw

36%

Samtse or Thimphu City

84%

Draw or Thimphu City

80%

Winning margin

Samtse wins by 2+

9%

Thimphu City wins by 2+

46%

Team goals

Samtse 1+ goals

85%

Samtse 2+ goals

57%

Samtse 3+ goals

30%

Thimphu City 1+ goals

96%

Thimphu City 2+ goals

84%

Thimphu City 3+ goals

63%

Draw no bet

Samtse (draw refunded)

24%

Thimphu City (draw refunded)

76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

79%

Both score & under 3

3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Samtse at home — creates 2.22, concedes 3.67 · 18 matches

Thimphu City away — creates 3.06, concedes 1.59 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Samtse attack 2.22 + Thimphu City defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.91

Thimphu City attack 3.06 + Samtse defence 3.67 → ÷2 → 3.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Samtse scores more

20%

level

16%

Thimphu City scores more

64%

Thimphu City at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Thimphu City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff