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Thimphu City vs Phuntsholing Heroes — Premier League 2023

Thimphu City
Thimphu City
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Phuntsholing Heroes
Phuntsholing Heroes
A. Oladipo 73', 15'
C. Gyeltshen 10'
8/3/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 6Changlimithang National Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Thimphu City76%
×Draw14%
Phuntsholing Heroes9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Thimphu City
2.76
Phuntsholing Heroes
0.86

Thimphu City creates 221% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 9 away

creates per match

Thimphu City
3.42
Phuntsholing Heroes
0.78

allows per match

Thimphu City
0.94
Phuntsholing Heroes
2.11

finishing

Thimphu City+0.00on par
Phuntsholing Heroes+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Thimphu City ↓

Phuntsholing Heroes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–16%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Thimphu City or draw
91%
Thimphu City or Phuntsholing Heroes
86%
Draw or Phuntsholing Heroes
24%

Winning margin

Thimphu City wins by 2+
56%
Phuntsholing Heroes wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Thimphu City 1+ goals
94%
Thimphu City 2+ goals
76%
Thimphu City 3+ goals
51%
Phuntsholing Heroes 1+ goals
58%
Phuntsholing Heroes 2+ goals
21%
Phuntsholing Heroes 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Thimphu City (draw refunded)
89%
Phuntsholing Heroes (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Thimphu City at home — creates 3.42, concedes 0.94 · 31 matches

Phuntsholing Heroes away — creates 0.78, concedes 2.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Thimphu City attack 3.42 + Phuntsholing Heroes defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 2.76

Phuntsholing Heroes attack 0.78 + Thimphu City defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Thimphu City scores more
76%
level
14%
Phuntsholing Heroes scores more
9%

Thimphu City at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Thimphu City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'
C. Gyeltshen
15'
A. Oladipo
73'
A. Oladipo

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Thimphu City 3–0 Phuntsholing Heroes

Thimphu City beat Phuntsholing Heroes 3-0 in Premier League on August 3, 2024.

Goals: C. Gyeltshen (10'), A. Oladipo (15', 73').

The match was played at Changlimithang National Stadium in Thimphu.