Phuntsholing Heroes 0–3 Thimphu City

Phuntsholing Heroes

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Thimphu City

7/14/2024

Premier League · Round 5PSA Phuentsholing Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Phuntsholing Heroes18%

×Draw15%

Thimphu City67%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Phuntsholing HeroesExpected goals in this matchThimphu City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

3.42

Phuntsholing Heroes

1.79

Thimphu City

3.42

Thimphu City creates 91% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 32 away

2.00

creates per match

3.06

3.78

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Phuntsholing Heroes

2.00

Thimphu City

3.06

allows per match

Phuntsholing Heroes

3.78

Thimphu City

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Phuntsholing Heroes+0.00on par

Thimphu City+0.00on par

Total goals

Over88
Under12

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes80
No20

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Phuntsholing Heroes ↓

Thimphu City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–23%

0–34%

0–43%

1

1–01%

1–14%

1–26%

1–37%

1–46%

2

2–01%

2–13%

2–25%

2–36%

2–45%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–23%

3–34%

3–43%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–3 (7%) · grid covers 76% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

96%4%2.5

88%12%3.5

75%25%4.5

57%43%

Double chance

Phuntsholing Heroes or draw

33%

Phuntsholing Heroes or Thimphu City

85%

Draw or Thimphu City

82%

Winning margin

Phuntsholing Heroes wins by 2+

8%

Thimphu City wins by 2+

48%

Team goals

Phuntsholing Heroes 1+ goals

83%

Phuntsholing Heroes 2+ goals

53%

Phuntsholing Heroes 3+ goals

26%

Thimphu City 1+ goals

97%

Thimphu City 2+ goals

85%

Thimphu City 3+ goals

64%

Draw no bet

Phuntsholing Heroes (draw refunded)

21%

Thimphu City (draw refunded)

79%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

77%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Phuntsholing Heroes at home — creates 2.00, concedes 3.78 · 9 matches

Thimphu City away — creates 3.06, concedes 1.59 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Phuntsholing Heroes attack 2.00 + Thimphu City defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.79

Thimphu City attack 3.06 + Phuntsholing Heroes defence 3.78 → ÷2 → 3.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Phuntsholing Heroes scores more

18%

level

15%

Thimphu City scores more

67%

Thimphu City at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Thimphu City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff