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Thimphu City vs Namlha — Premier League 2023

Thimphu City
Thimphu City
FT
6 – 0
Namlha
Namlha
7/29/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 1Changlimithang National Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Thimphu City89%
×Draw7%
Namlha4%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Thimphu City
4.27
Namlha
0.92

Thimphu City creates 364% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 9 away

creates per match

Thimphu City
3.42
Namlha
0.89

allows per match

Thimphu City
0.94
Namlha
5.11

finishing

Thimphu City+0.00on par
Namlha+0.00on par

Total goals

87%Over
  • Over87
  • Under13

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Thimphu City ↓

Namlha →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–13%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–09%
4–18%
4–24%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 4–0 (9%) · grid covers 67% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
87%13%3.5
72%28%4.5
53%47%

Double chance

Thimphu City or draw
96%
Thimphu City or Namlha
93%
Draw or Namlha
11%

Winning margin

Thimphu City wins by 2+
76%
Namlha wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Thimphu City 1+ goals
98%
Thimphu City 2+ goals
91%
Thimphu City 3+ goals
77%
Namlha 1+ goals
60%
Namlha 2+ goals
23%
Namlha 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Thimphu City (draw refunded)
96%
Namlha (draw refunded)
4%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Thimphu City at home — creates 3.42, concedes 0.94 · 31 matches

Namlha away — creates 0.89, concedes 5.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Thimphu City attack 3.42 + Namlha defence 5.11 → ÷2 → 4.27

Namlha attack 0.89 + Thimphu City defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 89%?"

Thimphu City scores more
89%
level
7%
Namlha scores more
4%

Thimphu City at 89% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 89% does not mean "Thimphu City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Thimphu City vs Namlha

Thimphu City beat Namlha 6-0 in Premier League on July 29, 2023.

The match was played at Changlimithang National Stadium in Thimphu.