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Namlha vs Thimphu City — Premier League 2023

Namlha
Namlha
FT
0 – 10
HT: 0 – 3
Thimphu City
Thimphu City
10/25/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 5Changlimithang National Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Namlha10%
×Draw12%
Thimphu City78%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Namlha
1.19
Thimphu City
3.42

Thimphu City creates 187% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 32 away

creates per match

Namlha
0.78
Thimphu City
3.06

allows per match

Namlha
3.78
Thimphu City
1.59

finishing

Namlha+0.00on par
Thimphu City+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Namlha ↓

Thimphu City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–14%
0–26%
0–37%
0–46%
1
1–01%
1–14%
1–27%
1–38%
1–47%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–24%
2–35%
2–44%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–22%
3–32%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–3 (8%) · grid covers 78% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
66%34%4.5
46%54%

Double chance

Namlha or draw
22%
Namlha or Thimphu City
88%
Draw or Thimphu City
90%

Winning margin

Namlha wins by 2+
3%
Thimphu City wins by 2+
60%

Team goals

Namlha 1+ goals
70%
Namlha 2+ goals
33%
Namlha 3+ goals
12%
Thimphu City 1+ goals
97%
Thimphu City 2+ goals
85%
Thimphu City 3+ goals
64%

Draw no bet

Namlha (draw refunded)
11%
Thimphu City (draw refunded)
89%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Namlha at home — creates 0.78, concedes 3.78 · 9 matches

Thimphu City away — creates 3.06, concedes 1.59 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Namlha attack 0.78 + Thimphu City defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.19

Thimphu City attack 3.06 + Namlha defence 3.78 → ÷2 → 3.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

Namlha scores more
10%
level
12%
Thimphu City scores more
78%

Thimphu City at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Thimphu City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Namlha 0–10 Thimphu City

Thimphu City beat Namlha 10-0 in Premier League on October 25, 2023.

The match was played at Changlimithang National Stadium in Thimphu.