Thimphu City 6–0 Druk Lhayul: Result & Stats

Thimphu City

FT

6 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Druk Lhayul

11/22/2023

Premier League · Round 8Changlimithang National Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Thimphu City72%

×Draw15%

Druk Lhayul14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Thimphu CityExpected goals in this matchDruk Lhayul

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.16

1.36

Thimphu City

3.16

Druk Lhayul

1.36

Thimphu City creates 132% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 9 away

3.42

creates per match

1.78

0.94

allows per match

2.89

creates per match

Thimphu City

3.42

Druk Lhayul

1.78

allows per match

Thimphu City

0.94

Druk Lhayul

2.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Thimphu City+0.00on par

Druk Lhayul+0.00on par

Total goals

Over82
Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Thimphu City ↓

Druk Lhayul →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–15%

1–23%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–05%

4–16%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

82%18%3.5

65%35%4.5

45%55%

Double chance

Thimphu City or draw

86%

Thimphu City or Druk Lhayul

85%

Draw or Druk Lhayul

28%

Winning margin

Thimphu City wins by 2+

52%

Druk Lhayul wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Thimphu City 1+ goals

96%

Thimphu City 2+ goals

82%

Thimphu City 3+ goals

59%

Druk Lhayul 1+ goals

74%

Druk Lhayul 2+ goals

39%

Druk Lhayul 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Thimphu City (draw refunded)

84%

Druk Lhayul (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Thimphu City at home — creates 3.42, concedes 0.94 · 31 matches

Druk Lhayul away — creates 1.78, concedes 2.89 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Thimphu City attack 3.42 + Druk Lhayul defence 2.89 → ÷2 → 3.16

Druk Lhayul attack 1.78 + Thimphu City defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Thimphu City scores more

72%

level

15%

Druk Lhayul scores more

14%

Thimphu City at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Thimphu City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff