Druk Lhayul 2–4 Thimphu City: Result & Stats

Druk Lhayul

FT

2 – 4

HT: 1 – 1

Thimphu City

9/17/2023

Premier League · Round 4Changlimithang National Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Druk Lhayul33%

×Draw18%

Thimphu City50%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Druk LhayulExpected goals in this matchThimphu City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.52

3.08

Druk Lhayul

2.52

Thimphu City

3.08

Thimphu City creates 22% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 32 away

3.44

creates per match

3.06

3.11

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Druk Lhayul

3.44

Thimphu City

3.06

allows per match

Druk Lhayul

3.11

Thimphu City

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Druk Lhayul+0.00on par

Thimphu City+0.00on par

Total goals

Over91
Under9

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes87
No13

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Druk Lhayul ↓

Thimphu City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–00%

0–11%

0–22%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–01%

1–13%

1–25%

1–35%

1–44%

2

2–01%

2–14%

2–26%

2–36%

2–45%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–25%

3–35%

3–44%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–23%

4–33%

4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (6%) · grid covers 75% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

100%0%1.5

97%3%2.5

91%9%3.5

80%20%4.5

64%36%

Double chance

Druk Lhayul or draw

50%

Druk Lhayul or Thimphu City

82%

Draw or Thimphu City

67%

Winning margin

Druk Lhayul wins by 2+

18%

Thimphu City wins by 2+

32%

Team goals

Druk Lhayul 1+ goals

92%

Druk Lhayul 2+ goals

71%

Druk Lhayul 3+ goals

45%

Thimphu City 1+ goals

95%

Thimphu City 2+ goals

81%

Thimphu City 3+ goals

58%

Draw no bet

Druk Lhayul (draw refunded)

40%

Thimphu City (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

84%

Both score & under 3

3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Druk Lhayul at home — creates 3.44, concedes 3.11 · 9 matches

Thimphu City away — creates 3.06, concedes 1.59 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Druk Lhayul attack 3.44 + Thimphu City defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 2.52

Thimphu City attack 3.06 + Druk Lhayul defence 3.11 → ÷2 → 3.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Druk Lhayul scores more

33%

level

18%

Thimphu City scores more

50%

Thimphu City at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Thimphu City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff