Thimphu City 2–0 Daga United: Result & Stats

Thimphu City

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Daga United

7/29/2024

Premier League · Round 6Changlimithang National Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Thimphu City85%

×Draw9%

Daga United6%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Thimphu CityExpected goals in this matchDaga United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.88

1.02

Thimphu City

3.88

Daga United

1.02

Thimphu City creates 280% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 9 away

3.42

creates per match

1.11

0.94

allows per match

4.33

creates per match

Thimphu City

3.42

Daga United

1.11

allows per match

Thimphu City

0.94

Daga United

4.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Thimphu City+0.00on par

Daga United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over85
Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Thimphu City ↓

Daga United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–11%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–03%

1–13%

1–22%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–06%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–08%

4–18%

4–24%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (8%) · grid covers 72% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

85%15%3.5

69%31%4.5

49%51%

Double chance

Thimphu City or draw

94%

Thimphu City or Daga United

91%

Draw or Daga United

15%

Winning margin

Thimphu City wins by 2+

70%

Daga United wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Thimphu City 1+ goals

98%

Thimphu City 2+ goals

89%

Thimphu City 3+ goals

72%

Daga United 1+ goals

64%

Daga United 2+ goals

27%

Daga United 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Thimphu City (draw refunded)

94%

Daga United (draw refunded)

6%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Thimphu City at home — creates 3.42, concedes 0.94 · 31 matches

Daga United away — creates 1.11, concedes 4.33 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Thimphu City attack 3.42 + Daga United defence 4.33 → ÷2 → 3.88

Daga United attack 1.11 + Thimphu City defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 85%?"

Thimphu City scores more

85%

level

9%

Daga United scores more

6%

Thimphu City at 85% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 85% does not mean "Thimphu City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff