Daga United 2–7 Thimphu City: Result & Stats

Daga United

FT

2 – 7

HT: 0 – 3

Thimphu City

5/30/2024

Premier League · Round 2Dagapela Artificial Turf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Daga United14%

×Draw14%

Thimphu City72%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Daga UnitedExpected goals in this matchThimphu City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

3.42

Daga United

1.52

Thimphu City

3.42

Thimphu City creates 125% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 32 away

1.44

creates per match

3.06

3.78

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Daga United

1.44

Thimphu City

3.06

allows per match

Daga United

3.78

Thimphu City

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Daga United+0.00on par

Thimphu City+0.00on par

Total goals

Over86
Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes75
No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Daga United ↓

Thimphu City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–24%

0–35%

0–44%

1

1–01%

1–14%

1–27%

1–38%

1–47%

2

2–01%

2–13%

2–25%

2–36%

2–45%

3

3–00%

3–12%

3–23%

3–33%

3–43%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–3 (8%) · grid covers 77% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

86%14%3.5

71%29%4.5

52%48%

Double chance

Daga United or draw

28%

Daga United or Thimphu City

86%

Draw or Thimphu City

86%

Winning margin

Daga United wins by 2+

6%

Thimphu City wins by 2+

53%

Team goals

Daga United 1+ goals

78%

Daga United 2+ goals

45%

Daga United 3+ goals

20%

Thimphu City 1+ goals

97%

Thimphu City 2+ goals

85%

Thimphu City 3+ goals

64%

Draw no bet

Daga United (draw refunded)

16%

Thimphu City (draw refunded)

84%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

71%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Daga United at home — creates 1.44, concedes 3.78 · 9 matches

Thimphu City away — creates 3.06, concedes 1.59 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Daga United attack 1.44 + Thimphu City defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.52

Thimphu City attack 3.06 + Daga United defence 3.78 → ÷2 → 3.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Daga United scores more

14%

level

14%

Thimphu City scores more

72%

Thimphu City at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Thimphu City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff