Thimphu City 5–0 Bhutan U19: Result & Stats

Thimphu City

FT

5 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Bhutan U19

5/25/2024

Premier League · Round 1Changlimithang National Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Thimphu City75%

×Draw14%

Bhutan U1911%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Thimphu CityExpected goals in this matchBhutan U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.00

1.10

Thimphu City

3.00

Bhutan U19

1.10

Thimphu City creates 173% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 23 away

3.42

creates per match

1.26

0.94

allows per match

2.57

creates per match

Thimphu City

3.42

Bhutan U19

1.26

allows per match

Thimphu City

0.94

Bhutan U19

2.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Thimphu City+0.00on par

Bhutan U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Thimphu City ↓

Bhutan U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–16%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–16%

4–24%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (8%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

57%43%4.5

37%63%

Double chance

Thimphu City or draw

89%

Thimphu City or Bhutan U19

86%

Draw or Bhutan U19

25%

Winning margin

Thimphu City wins by 2+

55%

Bhutan U19 wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Thimphu City 1+ goals

95%

Thimphu City 2+ goals

79%

Thimphu City 3+ goals

56%

Bhutan U19 1+ goals

67%

Bhutan U19 2+ goals

30%

Bhutan U19 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Thimphu City (draw refunded)

87%

Bhutan U19 (draw refunded)

13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Thimphu City at home — creates 3.42, concedes 0.94 · 31 matches

Bhutan U19 away — creates 1.26, concedes 2.57 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Thimphu City attack 3.42 + Bhutan U19 defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 3.00

Bhutan U19 attack 1.26 + Thimphu City defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Thimphu City scores more

75%

level

14%

Bhutan U19 scores more

11%

Thimphu City at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Thimphu City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff