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Bhutan U19 vs Thimphu City — Premier League 2023

Bhutan U19
Bhutan U19
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Thimphu City
Thimphu City
8/23/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 3Changlimithang National Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Bhutan U1924%
×Draw19%
Thimphu City56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bhutan U19
1.57
Thimphu City
2.44

Thimphu City creates 55% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 32 away

creates per match

Bhutan U19
1.55
Thimphu City
3.06

allows per match

Bhutan U19
1.82
Thimphu City
1.59

finishing

Bhutan U19+0.00on par
Thimphu City+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bhutan U19 ↓

Thimphu City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–25%
0–34%
0–43%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Bhutan U19 or draw
44%
Bhutan U19 or Thimphu City
81%
Draw or Thimphu City
76%

Winning margin

Bhutan U19 wins by 2+
11%
Thimphu City wins by 2+
36%

Team goals

Bhutan U19 1+ goals
79%
Bhutan U19 2+ goals
46%
Bhutan U19 3+ goals
21%
Thimphu City 1+ goals
91%
Thimphu City 2+ goals
70%
Thimphu City 3+ goals
43%

Draw no bet

Bhutan U19 (draw refunded)
30%
Thimphu City (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bhutan U19 at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.82 · 22 matches

Thimphu City away — creates 3.06, concedes 1.59 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bhutan U19 attack 1.55 + Thimphu City defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.57

Thimphu City attack 3.06 + Bhutan U19 defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 2.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Bhutan U19 scores more
24%
level
19%
Thimphu City scores more
56%

Thimphu City at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Thimphu City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Bhutan U19 1–1 Thimphu City

Bhutan U19 and Thimphu City drew 1-1 in Premier League on August 23, 2023.

The match was played at Changlimithang National Stadium in Thimphu.