Thika United 3–1 Sony Sugar: Result & Stats

Thika United

FT

3 – 1

Sony Sugar

5/13/2018

FKF Premier League · Round 15Thika Municipal Stadium (Thika)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Thika United26%

×Draw32%

Sony Sugar42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Thika UnitedExpected goals in this matchSony Sugar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.76

1.07

Thika United

0.76

Sony Sugar

1.07

Sony Sugar creates 41% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 46 away

0.63

creates per match

0.93

1.21

allows per match

0.89

creates per match

Thika United

0.63

Sony Sugar

0.93

allows per match

Thika United

1.21

Sony Sugar

0.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Thika United+0.00on par

Sony Sugar+0.00on par

Total goals

Under72
Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Thika United ↓

Sony Sugar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–117%

0–29%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–15%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

55%45%2.5

28%72%3.5

11%89%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Thika United or draw

58%

Thika United or Sony Sugar

68%

Draw or Sony Sugar

74%

Winning margin

Thika United wins by 2+

8%

Sony Sugar wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Thika United 1+ goals

53%

Thika United 2+ goals

18%

Thika United 3+ goals

4%

Sony Sugar 1+ goals

66%

Sony Sugar 2+ goals

29%

Sony Sugar 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Thika United (draw refunded)

38%

Sony Sugar (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Thika United at home — creates 0.63, concedes 1.21 · 24 matches

Sony Sugar away — creates 0.93, concedes 0.89 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Thika United attack 0.63 + Sony Sugar defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.76

Sony Sugar attack 0.93 + Thika United defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Thika United scores more

26%

level

32%

Sony Sugar scores more

42%

Sony Sugar at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Sony Sugar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff