Sony Sugar 1–0 Thika United: Result & Stats

Sony Sugar

FT

1 – 0

Thika United

4/2/2017

FKF Premier League · Round 3Green Stadium (Awendo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Sony Sugar53%

×Draw29%

Thika United18%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sony SugarExpected goals in this matchThika United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

0.65

Sony Sugar

1.33

Thika United

0.65

Sony Sugar creates 105% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 30 away

1.16

creates per match

0.67

0.63

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Sony Sugar

1.16

Thika United

0.67

allows per match

Sony Sugar

0.63

Thika United

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sony Sugar+0.00on par

Thika United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sony Sugar ↓

Thika United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Sony Sugar or draw

82%

Sony Sugar or Thika United

71%

Draw or Thika United

47%

Winning margin

Sony Sugar wins by 2+

26%

Thika United wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Sony Sugar 1+ goals

74%

Sony Sugar 2+ goals

38%

Sony Sugar 3+ goals

15%

Thika United 1+ goals

48%

Thika United 2+ goals

14%

Thika United 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Sony Sugar (draw refunded)

74%

Thika United (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sony Sugar at home — creates 1.16, concedes 0.63 · 51 matches

Thika United away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.50 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sony Sugar attack 1.16 + Thika United defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.33

Thika United attack 0.67 + Sony Sugar defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Sony Sugar scores more

53%

level

29%

Thika United scores more

18%

Sony Sugar at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Sony Sugar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff