Thika United 0–1 Chemelil Sugar: Result & Stats

Thika United

FT

0 – 1

Chemelil Sugar

9/27/2018

FKF Premier League · Round 32Thika Municipal Stadium (Thika)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Thika United39%

×Draw31%

Chemelil Sugar30%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Thika UnitedExpected goals in this matchChemelil Sugar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

0.90

Thika United

1.06

Chemelil Sugar

0.90

Thika United creates 18% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 48 away

0.63

creates per match

0.58

1.21

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Thika United

0.63

Chemelil Sugar

0.58

allows per match

Thika United

1.21

Chemelil Sugar

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Thika United+0.00on par

Chemelil Sugar+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Thika United ↓

Chemelil Sugar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–113%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Thika United or draw

70%

Thika United or Chemelil Sugar

69%

Draw or Chemelil Sugar

61%

Winning margin

Thika United wins by 2+

15%

Chemelil Sugar wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Thika United 1+ goals

65%

Thika United 2+ goals

29%

Thika United 3+ goals

9%

Chemelil Sugar 1+ goals

59%

Chemelil Sugar 2+ goals

23%

Chemelil Sugar 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Thika United (draw refunded)

56%

Chemelil Sugar (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Thika United at home — creates 0.63, concedes 1.21 · 24 matches

Chemelil Sugar away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.50 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Thika United attack 0.63 + Chemelil Sugar defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.06

Chemelil Sugar attack 0.58 + Thika United defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Thika United scores more

39%

level

31%

Chemelil Sugar scores more

30%

Thika United at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Thika United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff