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Chemelil Sugar vs Thika United — FKF Premier League 2018

Chemelil Sugar
Chemelil Sugar
FT
0 – 0
Thika United
Thika United
4/4/2018FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 9Chemelil Sports Complex (Chemelil)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Chemelil Sugar42%
×Draw30%
Thika United28%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chemelil Sugar
1.17
Thika United
0.89

Chemelil Sugar creates 31% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 30 away

creates per match

Chemelil Sugar
0.84
Thika United
0.67

allows per match

Chemelil Sugar
1.11
Thika United
1.50

finishing

Chemelil Sugar+0.00on par
Thika United+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chemelil Sugar ↓

Thika United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Chemelil Sugar or draw
72%
Chemelil Sugar or Thika United
70%
Draw or Thika United
58%

Winning margin

Chemelil Sugar wins by 2+
18%
Thika United wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Chemelil Sugar 1+ goals
69%
Chemelil Sugar 2+ goals
33%
Chemelil Sugar 3+ goals
11%
Thika United 1+ goals
59%
Thika United 2+ goals
22%
Thika United 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Chemelil Sugar (draw refunded)
60%
Thika United (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chemelil Sugar at home — creates 0.84, concedes 1.11 · 57 matches

Thika United away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.50 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chemelil Sugar attack 0.84 + Thika United defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.17

Thika United attack 0.67 + Chemelil Sugar defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Chemelil Sugar scores more
42%
level
30%
Thika United scores more
28%

Chemelil Sugar at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Chemelil Sugar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chemelil Sugar vs Thika United

Chemelil Sugar and Thika United drew 0-0 in FKF Premier League on April 4, 2018.

The match was played at Chemelil Sports Complex (Chemelil).