Thespakusatsu Gunma 1–0 Omiya Ardija

Thespakusatsu Gunma

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Omiya Ardija

10/1/2022

J2 League · Round 39Shoda Shoyu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 106+ matches

Thespakusatsu Gunma32%

×Draw29%

Omiya Ardija39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Thespakusatsu GunmaExpected goals in this matchOmiya Ardija

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.04

1.17

Thespakusatsu Gunma

1.04

Omiya Ardija

1.17

Omiya Ardija creates 13% more chances

Season form · 106 home / 146 away

0.77

creates per match

1.12

1.22

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Thespakusatsu Gunma

0.77

Omiya Ardija

1.12

allows per match

Thespakusatsu Gunma

1.22

Omiya Ardija

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Thespakusatsu Gunma+0.00on par

Omiya Ardija+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Thespakusatsu Gunma ↓

Omiya Ardija →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–113%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Thespakusatsu Gunma or draw

61%

Thespakusatsu Gunma or Omiya Ardija

71%

Draw or Omiya Ardija

68%

Winning margin

Thespakusatsu Gunma wins by 2+

12%

Omiya Ardija wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Thespakusatsu Gunma 1+ goals

65%

Thespakusatsu Gunma 2+ goals

28%

Thespakusatsu Gunma 3+ goals

9%

Omiya Ardija 1+ goals

69%

Omiya Ardija 2+ goals

33%

Omiya Ardija 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Thespakusatsu Gunma (draw refunded)

45%

Omiya Ardija (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Thespakusatsu Gunma at home — creates 0.77, concedes 1.22 · 106 matches

Omiya Ardija away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.32 · 146 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Thespakusatsu Gunma attack 0.77 + Omiya Ardija defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.04

Omiya Ardija attack 1.12 + Thespakusatsu Gunma defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Thespakusatsu Gunma scores more

32%

level

29%

Omiya Ardija scores more

39%

Omiya Ardija at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Omiya Ardija will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff