Omiya Ardija 0–1 Thespakusatsu Gunma

Omiya Ardija

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Thespakusatsu Gunma

4/12/2023

J2 League · Round 9NACK5 Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 105+ matches

Omiya Ardija45%

×Draw26%

Thespakusatsu Gunma29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Omiya ArdijaExpected goals in this matchThespakusatsu Gunma

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.11

Omiya Ardija

1.46

Thespakusatsu Gunma

1.11

Omiya Ardija creates 32% more chances

Season form · 147 home / 105 away

1.40

creates per match

0.97

1.26

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Omiya Ardija

1.40

Thespakusatsu Gunma

0.97

allows per match

Omiya Ardija

1.26

Thespakusatsu Gunma

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Omiya Ardija+0.00on par

Thespakusatsu Gunma+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Omiya Ardija ↓

Thespakusatsu Gunma →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Omiya Ardija or draw

71%

Omiya Ardija or Thespakusatsu Gunma

74%

Draw or Thespakusatsu Gunma

55%

Winning margin

Omiya Ardija wins by 2+

22%

Thespakusatsu Gunma wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Omiya Ardija 1+ goals

77%

Omiya Ardija 2+ goals

43%

Omiya Ardija 3+ goals

18%

Thespakusatsu Gunma 1+ goals

67%

Thespakusatsu Gunma 2+ goals

30%

Thespakusatsu Gunma 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Omiya Ardija (draw refunded)

61%

Thespakusatsu Gunma (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Omiya Ardija at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.26 · 147 matches

Thespakusatsu Gunma away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.53 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Omiya Ardija attack 1.40 + Thespakusatsu Gunma defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.46

Thespakusatsu Gunma attack 0.97 + Omiya Ardija defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Omiya Ardija scores more

45%

level

26%

Thespakusatsu Gunma scores more

29%

Omiya Ardija at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Omiya Ardija will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff