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Thespakusatsu Gunma vs Oita Trinita — J2 League 2018

Thespakusatsu Gunma
Thespakusatsu Gunma
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Oita Trinita
Oita Trinita
4/3/2024J2 LeagueJ2 League · Round 8Shoda Shoyu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 103+ matches

Thespakusatsu Gunma33%
×Draw29%
Oita Trinita38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Thespakusatsu Gunma
1.08
Oita Trinita
1.19

Oita Trinita creates 10% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 103 away

creates per match

Thespakusatsu Gunma
0.78
Oita Trinita
1.18

allows per match

Thespakusatsu Gunma
1.21
Oita Trinita
1.38

finishing

Thespakusatsu Gunma+0.00on par
Oita Trinita+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Thespakusatsu Gunma ↓

Oita Trinita →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Thespakusatsu Gunma or draw
62%
Thespakusatsu Gunma or Oita Trinita
71%
Draw or Oita Trinita
67%

Winning margin

Thespakusatsu Gunma wins by 2+
13%
Oita Trinita wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Thespakusatsu Gunma 1+ goals
66%
Thespakusatsu Gunma 2+ goals
29%
Thespakusatsu Gunma 3+ goals
10%
Oita Trinita 1+ goals
70%
Oita Trinita 2+ goals
33%
Oita Trinita 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Thespakusatsu Gunma (draw refunded)
46%
Oita Trinita (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Thespakusatsu Gunma at home — creates 0.78, concedes 1.21 · 107 matches

Oita Trinita away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.38 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Thespakusatsu Gunma attack 0.78 + Oita Trinita defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.08

Oita Trinita attack 1.18 + Thespakusatsu Gunma defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Thespakusatsu Gunma scores more
33%
level
29%
Oita Trinita scores more
38%

Oita Trinita at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Oita Trinita will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

J2 League: Thespakusatsu Gunma 0–2 Oita Trinita

Oita Trinita beat Thespakusatsu Gunma 2-0 in J2 League on April 3, 2024.

The match was played at Shoda Shoyu Stadium in Maebashi.