Oita Trinita 2–1 Thespakusatsu Gunma

Oita Trinita

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Thespakusatsu Gunma

11/3/2024

J2 League · Round 37Resonac Dome Oita

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 103+ matches

Oita Trinita46%

×Draw27%

Thespakusatsu Gunma27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Oita TrinitaExpected goals in this matchThespakusatsu Gunma

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.04

Oita Trinita

1.43

Thespakusatsu Gunma

1.04

Oita Trinita creates 38% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 105 away

1.33

creates per match

0.97

1.12

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Oita Trinita

1.33

Thespakusatsu Gunma

0.97

allows per match

Oita Trinita

1.12

Thespakusatsu Gunma

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Oita Trinita+0.00on par

Thespakusatsu Gunma+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oita Trinita ↓

Thespakusatsu Gunma →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Oita Trinita or draw

73%

Oita Trinita or Thespakusatsu Gunma

73%

Draw or Thespakusatsu Gunma

54%

Winning margin

Oita Trinita wins by 2+

22%

Thespakusatsu Gunma wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Oita Trinita 1+ goals

76%

Oita Trinita 2+ goals

42%

Oita Trinita 3+ goals

17%

Thespakusatsu Gunma 1+ goals

65%

Thespakusatsu Gunma 2+ goals

28%

Thespakusatsu Gunma 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Oita Trinita (draw refunded)

63%

Thespakusatsu Gunma (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oita Trinita at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.12 · 103 matches

Thespakusatsu Gunma away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.53 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oita Trinita attack 1.33 + Thespakusatsu Gunma defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.43

Thespakusatsu Gunma attack 0.97 + Oita Trinita defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Oita Trinita scores more

46%

level

27%

Thespakusatsu Gunma scores more

27%

Oita Trinita at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Oita Trinita will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff