Thespakusatsu Gunma 1–1 Kagoshima United

Thespakusatsu Gunma

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Kagoshima United

2/25/2024

J2 League · Round 1Shoda Shoyu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Thespakusatsu Gunma44%

×Draw27%

Kagoshima United29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Thespakusatsu GunmaExpected goals in this matchKagoshima United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.03

Thespakusatsu Gunma

1.35

Kagoshima United

1.03

Thespakusatsu Gunma creates 31% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 42 away

0.78

creates per match

0.86

1.21

allows per match

1.93

creates per match

Thespakusatsu Gunma

0.78

Kagoshima United

0.86

allows per match

Thespakusatsu Gunma

1.21

Kagoshima United

1.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Thespakusatsu Gunma+0.00on par

Kagoshima United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Thespakusatsu Gunma ↓

Kagoshima United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Thespakusatsu Gunma or draw

71%

Thespakusatsu Gunma or Kagoshima United

73%

Draw or Kagoshima United

56%

Winning margin

Thespakusatsu Gunma wins by 2+

21%

Kagoshima United wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Thespakusatsu Gunma 1+ goals

74%

Thespakusatsu Gunma 2+ goals

39%

Thespakusatsu Gunma 3+ goals

15%

Kagoshima United 1+ goals

64%

Kagoshima United 2+ goals

28%

Kagoshima United 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Thespakusatsu Gunma (draw refunded)

61%

Kagoshima United (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Thespakusatsu Gunma at home — creates 0.78, concedes 1.21 · 107 matches

Kagoshima United away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.93 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Thespakusatsu Gunma attack 0.78 + Kagoshima United defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.35

Kagoshima United attack 0.86 + Thespakusatsu Gunma defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Thespakusatsu Gunma scores more

44%

level

27%

Kagoshima United scores more

29%

Thespakusatsu Gunma at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Thespakusatsu Gunma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff