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Kagoshima United vs Thespakusatsu Gunma — J2 League 2018

Kagoshima United
Kagoshima United
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Thespakusatsu Gunma
Thespakusatsu Gunma
7/13/2024J2 LeagueJ2 League · Round 24Shiranami Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Kagoshima United42%
×Draw27%
Thespakusatsu Gunma32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kagoshima United
1.35
Thespakusatsu Gunma
1.14

Kagoshima United creates 18% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 105 away

creates per match

Kagoshima United
1.18
Thespakusatsu Gunma
0.97

allows per match

Kagoshima United
1.30
Thespakusatsu Gunma
1.53

finishing

Kagoshima United+0.00on par
Thespakusatsu Gunma+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kagoshima United ↓

Thespakusatsu Gunma →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Kagoshima United or draw
68%
Kagoshima United or Thespakusatsu Gunma
73%
Draw or Thespakusatsu Gunma
58%

Winning margin

Kagoshima United wins by 2+
19%
Thespakusatsu Gunma wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Kagoshima United 1+ goals
74%
Kagoshima United 2+ goals
39%
Kagoshima United 3+ goals
15%
Thespakusatsu Gunma 1+ goals
68%
Thespakusatsu Gunma 2+ goals
32%
Thespakusatsu Gunma 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Kagoshima United (draw refunded)
57%
Thespakusatsu Gunma (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kagoshima United at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.30 · 40 matches

Thespakusatsu Gunma away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.53 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kagoshima United attack 1.18 + Thespakusatsu Gunma defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.35

Thespakusatsu Gunma attack 0.97 + Kagoshima United defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Kagoshima United scores more
42%
level
27%
Thespakusatsu Gunma scores more
32%

Kagoshima United at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Kagoshima United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kagoshima United vs Thespakusatsu Gunma

Kagoshima United and Thespakusatsu Gunma drew 1-1 in J2 League on July 13, 2024.

The match was played at Shiranami Stadium in Kagoshima.