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Thespakusatsu Gunma vs Ehime FC — J2 League 2018

Thespakusatsu Gunma
Thespakusatsu Gunma
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Ehime FC
Ehime FC
3/16/2024J2 LeagueJ2 League · Round 4Shoda Shoyu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 107+ matches

Thespakusatsu Gunma39%
×Draw28%
Ehime FC33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Thespakusatsu Gunma
1.21
Ehime FC
1.09

Thespakusatsu Gunma creates 11% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 123 away

creates per match

Thespakusatsu Gunma
0.78
Ehime FC
0.98

allows per match

Thespakusatsu Gunma
1.21
Ehime FC
1.64

finishing

Thespakusatsu Gunma+0.00on par
Ehime FC+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Thespakusatsu Gunma ↓

Ehime FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Thespakusatsu Gunma or draw
67%
Thespakusatsu Gunma or Ehime FC
72%
Draw or Ehime FC
61%

Winning margin

Thespakusatsu Gunma wins by 2+
17%
Ehime FC wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Thespakusatsu Gunma 1+ goals
70%
Thespakusatsu Gunma 2+ goals
34%
Thespakusatsu Gunma 3+ goals
12%
Ehime FC 1+ goals
66%
Ehime FC 2+ goals
30%
Ehime FC 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Thespakusatsu Gunma (draw refunded)
54%
Ehime FC (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Thespakusatsu Gunma at home — creates 0.78, concedes 1.21 · 107 matches

Ehime FC away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.64 · 123 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Thespakusatsu Gunma attack 0.78 + Ehime FC defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.21

Ehime FC attack 0.98 + Thespakusatsu Gunma defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Thespakusatsu Gunma scores more
39%
level
28%
Ehime FC scores more
33%

Thespakusatsu Gunma at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Thespakusatsu Gunma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

J2 League: Thespakusatsu Gunma 0–1 Ehime FC

Ehime FC beat Thespakusatsu Gunma 1-0 in J2 League on March 16, 2024.

The match was played at Shoda Shoyu Stadium in Maebashi.