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Ehime FC vs Thespakusatsu Gunma — J2 League 2018

Ehime FC
Ehime FC
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Thespakusatsu Gunma
Thespakusatsu Gunma
11/21/2020J2 LeagueJ2 League · Round 35Ningineer Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 105+ matches

Ehime FC36%
×Draw27%
Thespakusatsu Gunma37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ehime FC
1.23
Thespakusatsu Gunma
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 124 home / 105 away

creates per match

Ehime FC
0.92
Thespakusatsu Gunma
0.97

allows per match

Ehime FC
1.52
Thespakusatsu Gunma
1.53

finishing

Ehime FC+0.00on par
Thespakusatsu Gunma+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ehime FC ↓

Thespakusatsu Gunma →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Ehime FC or draw
63%
Ehime FC or Thespakusatsu Gunma
73%
Draw or Thespakusatsu Gunma
64%

Winning margin

Ehime FC wins by 2+
15%
Thespakusatsu Gunma wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Ehime FC 1+ goals
71%
Ehime FC 2+ goals
35%
Ehime FC 3+ goals
13%
Thespakusatsu Gunma 1+ goals
71%
Thespakusatsu Gunma 2+ goals
36%
Thespakusatsu Gunma 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Ehime FC (draw refunded)
49%
Thespakusatsu Gunma (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ehime FC at home — creates 0.92, concedes 1.52 · 124 matches

Thespakusatsu Gunma away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.53 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ehime FC attack 0.92 + Thespakusatsu Gunma defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.23

Thespakusatsu Gunma attack 0.97 + Ehime FC defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Ehime FC scores more
36%
level
27%
Thespakusatsu Gunma scores more
37%

Thespakusatsu Gunma at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Thespakusatsu Gunma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ehime FC vs Thespakusatsu Gunma

Thespakusatsu Gunma beat Ehime FC 1-0 in J2 League on November 21, 2020.

The match was played at Ningineer Stadium in Matsuyama.